Impossible Challenge

“Impossible Challenge” – a cartoon that illustrates that the latest crypto bull market is over and with it the concept of four year cycles.

For more than a decade, crypto moved to a predictable rhythm. Bitcoin’s halving set the tempo for four-year waves of building, exuberance and sharp crashes. Even with the chaos, each cycle expanded the ecosystem. After 2018, Ethereum’s developer base grew. After 2021, the industry emerged with stronger L2s, better security tooling, and far more robust stablecoin rails. The pattern drew in new talent and capital, and the sector kept compounding.

Earlier bull markets also lifted everything. In 2017 and 2021, liquidity was indiscriminate. If a token existed, it went up and many projects with questionable value benefited from this “rising tide” concept.

This current cycle looks nothing like that. Bitcoin now controls roughly 60% of total crypto value, while most altcoins have posted double-digit weekly drops. Momentum has narrowed into memes, RWAs, and prediction markets. Even this week’s heavy sell-off and $19 billion in liquidations didn’t trigger fears of a systemic 3AC-style implosion. Investors are behaving like participants in a maturing asset class, not passengers on a fixed halving script.

Traditional markets show the same fragmentation. In 2025, AI-driven giants like Nvidia and Microsoft carried most of the S&P 500’s gains while large sections of the index lagged. Mature markets don’t move together. They split into winners and everything else.

Crypto is starting to do the same. As Raoul Pal, founder at research company Real Vision, put it earlier this year, “the idea of a predictable four-year crypto cycle is fading. The bull market isn’t a calendar event anymore, and anyone waiting for one is looking in the wrong place.”

“Completely agree. The hard part now isn’t timing the next bull, it’s picking which rails, apps and ecosystems actually deserve another order of magnitude.”
Ryan Scott
BizDev | Eccentric Labs | Pilots, partnerships & GTM for Web3/Fintech/AI
“Very articulate and insightful post! I believe you have made a much clearer picture than I did 9 months ago in my post about top crypto coins for people to look into.
If you are interested in reading it I also outlined some of the “winners” the way you mentioned.
Again, you have a great way with words that I hope to learn from.”
Drew Epperson
Aspiring Hedge Fund Manager | United States Marine Retired
“One cycle behaving differently ≠ “cycles are dead.” 2015 was also atypical post-2013. Sample size = 1 insufficient to invalidate decade-long pattern.”
Lucca Rassele
Connecting Digital Asset Ventures with Capital & Growth opportunities
“The days when the entire market moved up together are over. Now, only a few areas, such as RWAs, prediction markets, and a couple of strong narratives, are seeing real momentum while everything else follows its own path.”
Krunal Soni
CEO | Blockchain & AI | Real World Asset Tokenisation
“One of the first rules of investing – ignore opinions including your own.”
Zaheer Anwari
“Exactly this, the cycle will change but alts are not dead its just no liquidity in the market at the moment.”
Magnus Söderberg
Founder & CEO @ Triolith Games | Raising Pre-Seed
“Trump pump this weekend 🤷‍♂️……”
Lee Plaister
Founder @ afx.com
“Bull market is sinking?”
Charudatta Kale
Risk Business Partner | Author | 1 Million + monthly views